Key Demographics for Obama Presidential Speech

US NEWS:Over the past couple of days, many political analysts have weighed in on the constituencies that Obama needs to address in his State of the Union tonight. Eleanor Clift told us what he could do to win over liberals; David Frum shared his thoughts on what moderates want to hear; and Howard Fineman offered advice for appealing to independents. While I think those are the critical constituencies, there are at least two other specific demographics the president needs to speak to.

Blue-collar workers: Although we don’t have great exit polling from the Massachusetts Senate race, there’s certainly anecdotal evidence to suggest that Republican Scott Brown appealed to blue-collar workers. His truck-driving campaign persona was manufactured to appeal to the average guy working in a factory or warehouse. And it may have worked.

Blue-collar workers are among the hardest hit by the recession. Industrial jobs have been trickling out of the U.S. for years, and there’s little to suggest they’ll ever return in the same numbers, let alone at the same skill levels. The administration’s focus on health care and banks is relatively meaningless to these workers. If employed, they’re likely to have great health care, a hard-won perk representing years of union struggles. As such, they’re likely to be affected by the so-called Cadillac tax, which ultimately affects their pay. It’s understandably unpopular. This group used to be one Democrats could take for granted. But as Martha Coakley so ably illustrated, that’s extremely dangerous in this environment.

It’s clear that Obama will be focusing on the middle class tonight, and that should speak to blue-collar workers as well. (Voters rarely like to identify themselves as “blue collar.” Most people prefer the more aspirational connotations of “middle class.”) But the challenges for these two economic groups shouldn’t be conflated. Middle-class voters worry about keeping their fancy homes and cars and sending their kids to college, but the overriding concern of blue-collar workers is whether their jobs—and indeed their industries—will exist in a few years. How do their skills fit in with a changing economy? Obama should use his speech to make the case that the Democrats haven’t deserted this pivotal part of their base.

Older voters: Compared with most demographic groups, seniors come out in droves in midterm elections. And right now they’re unhappy. Misleading fearmongering about cuts to Medicare has been brutally effective, rendering health-care reform broadly unpopular with this group—and this is one of the demographics most invested in the topic. Although Obama wants to avoid making his speech about health care, he’s going to need to mute the critics and reassure the elderly that he’s out to make their lives better. They’re past worrying about the cost of college and buying new homes, but they are concerned with their economic and physical futures. The president needs to weave answers to their nervousness into his grand narrative.